Preseason Rankings
Sun Belt
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
85 Georgia St. 36.9%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 5 +5.8      +3.4 85 +2.4 98 66.6 238 0.0 1 0.0 1
100 Louisiana 25.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +4.3      +3.1 93 +1.2 129 73.6 68 0.0 1 0.0 1
148 Georgia Southern 12.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 8 +1.1      +1.0 134 +0.1 164 70.5 141 0.0 1 0.0 1
150 South Alabama 11.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +0.9      -0.7 185 +1.6 123 73.4 70 0.0 1 0.0 1
175 Appalachian St. 7.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 9 -0.7      +0.3 159 -1.0 202 73.1 79 0.0 1 0.0 1
192 Troy 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -1.5      -0.6 182 -1.0 200 69.7 159 0.0 1 0.0 1
203 Texas St. 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 9 -2.4      -2.2 236 -0.2 171 59.3 347 0.0 1 0.0 1
210 Louisiana Monroe 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -3.0      -2.4 242 -0.6 185 64.8 288 0.0 1 0.0 1
221 Coastal Carolina 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 10 -3.5      -2.5 244 -1.1 205 68.5 193 0.0 1 0.0 1
256 Texas Arlington 1.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 11 -5.4      -4.6 292 -0.9 196 79.0 18 0.0 1 0.0 1
264 Arkansas Little Rock 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -5.9      -5.0 305 -0.9 197 63.2 319 0.0 1 0.0 1
286 Arkansas St. 21.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 20 6 - 12 -6.9      -2.4 240 -4.5 315 72.0 99 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Georgia St. 2.8 38.8 19.3 13.4 9.2 6.3 4.6 3.5 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.3
Louisiana 3.3 29.9 20.3 14.6 10.3 7.5 5.3 4.3 3.3 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.5
Georgia Southern 5.1 11.7 12.3 12.3 12.3 10.7 9.5 8.7 7.3 5.3 5.0 3.2 1.8
South Alabama 4.8 12.6 14.6 14.3 11.6 10.6 9.9 7.4 6.0 4.8 4.2 2.6 1.6
Appalachian St. 5.7 8.7 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.4 9.7 9.2 8.4 7.1 6.4 4.8 3.4
Troy 6.2 6.2 7.8 9.5 10.1 10.5 10.4 10.1 9.6 8.8 7.2 6.0 3.9
Texas St. 6.4 4.7 7.7 8.9 9.8 10.2 10.1 9.7 9.8 8.7 8.3 6.7 5.5
Louisiana Monroe 7.0 3.6 5.6 7.2 7.7 8.7 10.0 10.8 10.2 10.6 9.2 9.4 6.9
Coastal Carolina 7.3 3.4 5.3 6.2 7.2 8.0 9.7 9.6 10.5 10.4 9.9 10.8 8.9
Texas Arlington 8.1 1.5 2.8 4.2 5.9 6.9 8.0 9.4 10.1 11.4 13.2 13.4 13.2
Arkansas Little Rock 8.3 1.2 2.6 4.0 5.3 7.1 7.7 8.9 10.3 11.5 12.8 14.0 14.6
Arkansas St. 8.7 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.2 5.3 7.2 8.5 9.7 11.5 13.4 15.8 18.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Georgia St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.1 3.4 5.2 6.7 9.4 11.6 12.8 13.8 12.5 10.3 7.0 2.8
Louisiana 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.7 3.2 4.7 6.3 8.5 10.2 11.7 12.8 13.2 11.3 8.5 4.6 1.6
Georgia Southern 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.0 5.4 7.4 9.6 10.9 11.7 11.7 10.8 8.7 6.7 4.5 2.8 1.2 0.3
South Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.8 6.1 8.7 10.9 11.5 11.2 11.7 10.1 8.1 5.1 3.1 1.3 0.4
Appalachian St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.4 5.5 7.3 8.5 10.5 11.0 10.8 10.4 8.9 7.3 5.7 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.1
Troy 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.4 6.5 8.7 11.0 11.0 11.4 10.8 10.3 7.6 5.7 4.2 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
Texas St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.4 5.2 7.1 8.9 10.7 11.4 11.2 10.1 9.5 7.4 5.5 4.0 2.2 0.7 0.3 0.1
Louisiana Monroe 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.8 6.6 8.8 10.4 11.2 12.1 11.0 9.0 7.8 6.0 4.1 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
Coastal Carolina 8 - 10 0.5 1.8 3.0 5.5 7.4 9.7 10.2 11.2 10.9 10.6 9.1 6.3 5.6 3.6 2.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Texas Arlington 7 - 11 0.8 2.1 4.8 7.4 10.0 11.8 12.0 11.6 10.5 8.8 7.4 5.3 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1
Arkansas Little Rock 7 - 11 1.0 2.6 5.3 8.0 10.1 12.0 12.0 11.9 9.9 8.9 6.7 4.8 3.3 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Arkansas St. 6 - 12 1.2 3.5 6.9 9.7 11.3 12.1 13.1 11.3 9.4 7.8 5.1 3.9 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Georgia St. 38.8% 28.4 8.3 1.8 0.3 0.1
Louisiana 29.9% 20.6 7.4 1.7 0.2 0.1
Georgia Southern 11.7% 7.3 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.1
South Alabama 12.6% 7.5 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
Appalachian St. 8.7% 4.9 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
Troy 6.2% 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Texas St. 4.7% 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Monroe 3.6% 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Coastal Carolina 3.4% 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas St. 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Georgia St. 36.9% 33.5% 3.3% 13   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.9 5.3 8.4 8.0 4.7 2.8 1.2 63.1 5.0%
Louisiana 25.7% 24.1% 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 2.5 4.9 5.7 5.6 3.2 1.8 74.3 2.0%
Georgia Southern 12.3% 11.1% 1.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 2.6 2.4 1.7 0.9 87.7 1.4%
South Alabama 11.1% 10.9% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.2 88.9 0.3%
Appalachian St. 7.5% 7.2% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.2 92.5 0.3%
Troy 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Texas St. 4.2% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.1 95.8 0.1%
Louisiana Monroe 3.7% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 96.3 0.2%
Coastal Carolina 3.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 96.8 0.1%
Texas Arlington 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 98.4 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Arkansas St. 21.5% 21.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.7 16.7 78.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Georgia St. 36.9% 2.1% 35.8% 10.7% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Louisiana 25.7% 1.6% 25.1% 6.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Southern 12.3% 1.2% 11.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 11.1% 1.2% 10.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Appalachian St. 7.5% 0.8% 7.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas St. 4.2% 0.7% 3.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 3.7% 0.5% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Coastal Carolina 3.2% 0.5% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 1.6% 0.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 21.5% 13.7% 13.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 73.7 24.7 1.6 0.0
1st Round 98.1% 1.2 1.9 81.3 16.0 0.7 0.0
2nd Round 22.1% 0.2 77.9 21.7 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 6.9% 0.1 93.1 6.9 0.0
Elite Eight 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9 0.0
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1